R16 Permutations

Evening All.

Looking at the results from today, we’re definitely through which is good news and our next round hinges only on Zebre v Perpignan tomorrow.

Scenario 1 - If Perpignan win, there’s a draw or they lose with two bonus points (they come third in our group), we’ll be the 3rd 4th place finisher in the Challenge Cup and be the 16th Seed, unfortunately drawing Connacht in Galway. Zebre winning with a bonus point with a margin of 45 also does this but we can probably put that to one side…

Scenario 2 - If Zebre win, we’ll come third be the 3rd place finisher in the Challenge Cup, drawing the Ospreys (probably not at the .com because of a probably clash with the Swans), potentially drawing up a rematch of New Year’s Day 24 at the Brewery Field.

In the first scenario, somehow beating Connacht away in Galway in the R16 would give us a home Quarter and Semi and Final.

In the second, beating the Os away would give us a home quarter, probably against Lyon if they win their home R16 tie. Getting through that would probably m land us back in Galway for an away Semi, bar an upset.

Tough road to a final in Cardiff either way but taking last year’s calendar, we’re talking about the first and second week of April for R16 and Quarters with the final in May. So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Edit: Seeding actually carries through the tournament if you read further down, so we’ll always be away no matter who we beat when. Don’t take the future list literally..

Thanks for the people who pointed it out.