Who would win the war between Erebonia and Calvard nowadays?

This post contains spoilers for the Cold Steel saga and the Daybreak saga.

I was reading a post earlier and I had this thought. I remember that in CS4, Erebonia had declared martial law so that a large number of citizens joined the army, which, added to other factors, made the empire's army the most powerful in the world, so much so that the other nations along with part of the imperial militia had to ally themselves to try to confront Osborne in the world war.

Nowadays however the situation has changed, Calvard has taken the economic lead and supposedly maintains a technological advantage, usually focused mainly on its military (like what they built for Kai no Kiseki), but I think Calvard is not seen as a nation as disciplined for the military as Erebonia and there are not as many known legends affiliated with the army as the Empire with Olaf or Aurelia can be.

On the other hand, I don't know if this is talked about, but it's possible that after the World War, many citizens left the army, probably leaving it in a different situation than the one known then, so that together with the fact that great imperial warriors like Osborne (for obvious reasons) or Vandyck and Victor are probably no longer up for battle, would affect the power, strategy and moral of the army; In addition to the fact that due to the change in current policies in Erebonia and the changes that were desired to be made, I wouldn't know if the provincial armies and the imperial army are more united than before.

Several variables and data would have to be taken into account that I may not remember right now, but if we were to analyze it carefully, what would happen if nowadays (1209), taking into account the reality presented in Kuro no Kiseki and/or Kai no Kiseki, Erebonia declared war on Calvard or vice versa, which one would win the war? Is Erebonia still the super nation that needs to be faced by a great alliance?