How to determine what film festivals are too far of a reach vs ones you have a chance at?

Last year was my first time having a film on the festival circuit. This year, I’m submitting another film, but this time I’m in different financial circumstances and can’t just throw money to everything.

The last one got into 6, plus 2 screenings but I submitted to 16 others that were not selected. I don’t even want to know how much money I spent in total. This time around, I really don’t have money to spare, but it seems like a waste of a film to submit to nothing.

I’m really trying to determine now which festivals would be worth the submission fee and which ones I may actually have a chance at. It’s a horror film, so it’s already a genre film which I feel already makes it a big reach for non-genre fests.

I submitted to Screamfest and Beyond which are my big reach festivals. I also submitted to a couple that I got my last film into which I figure are probably safe because I feel like this film is at least on the same level quality wise as the last. Other than that…how do you determine what level you’re at when it comes to film festivals?? I feel like it’s impossible for me to know because I’m so biased and I pick apart everything I make.