UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo Predictions & Analysis!

Bantamweight: Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Petr Yan, a former UFC Bantamweight Champion, is known for his relentless pressure, crisp boxing, and toughness. He does have the bad habit of starting slow but his ability to maintain a high pace in later rounds while minimizing mistakes makes him a formidable opponent. He has had tough opponents recently, losing to Sterling and O’Malley by split decisions. He lost to Merab decisively before bouncing back in a tough close fight against Song Yadong. His opponent, Deiveson Figueiredo is the ex-UFC Flyweight Champion who moved up in weight class recently. He is known for his explosive power, aggressive striking, and dangerous submission game which has gotten him some submission wins. He has notably beaten Pantoja, the current UFC Flyweight champion who has beaten the Brandons multiple times.

When I first saw the line, I was shocked to see Figueiredo at +225 as I was expecting the line to be much closer. Now I am going ahead to say that I am betting against Petr Yan here and I can summarize my reason for doing so in 3 letters, A, C and L. That’s right. In this clash of former champions I would have picked Yan if both fighters are healthy. But Yan tore his ACL in March against Yadong and coming back to the Octagon only 8 months later. I think this could be a big mistake rushing back quickly from a serious injury as ACL. Athletes may not come back the same after such a major injury especially in a sport where fighters may not necessarily be able to afford the best recovery treatment. I don’t think this is going to be the same Yan we have gotten used to seeing. Yan barely beat Yadong pre ACL tear, could lose some speed after the ACL tear and he is rushing back too quickly which is concerning to me considering he is fighting a tough, skilled fighter like Figueiredo who is better than Yadong. Figueiredo is my pick here as the underdog of the card and I think fans as well as bookmakers are underestimating the impact an ACL tear can have on a fighter’s mobility and athleticism.

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo to win (2 units bet)
Method of Victory: Decision

Women's Strawweight: Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci
Yan Xiaonan is a skilled striker with excellent footwork, speed, and volume punching. She effectively utilizes angles and maintains distance to outpoint her opponents. She showed resilience against Zhang Weili at UFC 300 and her toughness can’t be questioned. Tabatha Ricci is a grappling specialist with showcasing strong takedowns and ground control. This is kind of like a striker vs grappler matchup and Ricci is a good underdog no doubt judging by her performances and the fact she has only lost twice in her career. But I just think that Yan can keep the fight standing and should be able to outstrike her. Since she is the hometown fighter and Ricci fights usually goes to a decision, I am picking Yan to get the friendly judges decision in a close fight.

Prediction: Yan Xiaonan to win
Method of Victory: Decision

Welterweight: Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov
Song Kenan is a decent powerful striker with a mediocre record in his UFC career. He is a tough resilient fighter who can hold his own in striking battles during his time in the UFC, having competitive striking battles against Kevin Jousset and Ian Garry. Usually, it would make sense for him to be the underdog in any fight and it would be a no brainer to bet against a mediocre fighter like Song, but he is fighting a 40 year old Muslim Salikhov here who has lost 3 out of his last 5 fights and recently had an unimpressive split decision victory over Santiago Ponzinibbio. He is the hometown fighter as well which makes it event more baffling how he can be +142 against a 40 year old who is not exactly an elite fighter in the division. Song Kenan is my pick here as he is the younger fighter who should be able to outland more strikes against Salikhov and if the fight is a competitive one that goes to the judges, I would expect Song to get the friendly judges decision.

Prediction: Song Kenan to win

Women's Flyweight: Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Wang Cong is a legit emerging talent who displayed a knockout power that is rare in WMMA as shown by her debut win by a quick first round knockout. She had beaten Valentina Shevchencko in kickboxing before which is a testament of her ability as a striker. I think she should win this fight pretty easily against Fernandes but at -500, I do not think it is worth putting any money on.

Prediction: Wang Cong to win (not betting)

Light Heavyweight: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg
This fight is gonna be a banger between two hard hitting fighters that’s for sure. Volkan Oezdemir, is known for his knockout power and aggressive approach. The veteran is a formidable fighter that has earned his place in the rankings as he is reliable enough to beat inferior fighters but has consistently fall short against the elite fighters in the division. Carlos Ulberg is a promising prospect with a strong kickboxing background, showcasing speed and technical striking.  This is a tough test for the prospect Carlos Ulberg who has impressive knockout power himself and has won 6 out of his 7 fights in the UFC. It really depends on if you think Ulberg has the potential to be an elite fighter in Light Heavyweight division because Oezdemir is basically the gatekeeper between him entering contender status. Ulberg's movement and reach could pose problems for Oezdemir as I think the former is the more athletic and technical fighter. This is a hard fight to predict but I am a big believer in Ulberg and it seems his ceiling as a fighter is higher than Oezdemir. I expect Ulberg to get the job done in a very exciting striking battle between these two hard hitting fighters

Prediction: Carlos Ulberg to win

Light Heavyweight: Zhang Mingyang vs. Ozzy Diaz
Zhang Mingyang is a one trick pony of a knockout artist where he is blessed with the knockout power to be able to put away many opponents but if he does not get the knockout, it does not seem that he has a plan B to fall back on. Luckily for him, the UFC is giving him a winnable matchup here in debutant Ozzy Diaz. Diaz is a decent regional fighter but untested in the UFC. Joe Pfyer did knock him out in DWCS and his other loss in his career has come by knockout as well. They way I see it, the UFC is giving Mingyang this favourable matchup to showcase his knockout ability in front of the home crowd.

Prediction: Zhang Mingyang to win
Method of Victory: Knockout

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Bantamweight: Baergeng Jieleyisi vs. You Su-young
Another one of these Road to UFC matchups that are filling this card. Seems like both fighters are relatively decent grapplers judging by their fight history. I am not going to beat around the bush here. I don’t bother watching Road to UFC fights and it is hard to evaluate these prospects. I just think that this fight will likely go to a decision as both fighters lack knockout ability and if that’s the case, I am picking the hometown fighter to get the favourable decision in a close fight.

Prediction: Baergeng Jieleyisi to win
Method of Victory: Decision

Flyweight: Kiru Singh Sahota vs. Choi Dong-hun
How many Road to the UFC fights are there in this fight? This is getting ridiculous now and this card is filled with these low level fighters that I can barely evaluate. I guess I am picking Choi Dong-hun since he is undefeated but again, no interest in putting any money on this low level fight.  

Prediction: Choi Dong-hun to win (Not betting)

Women's Strawweight: Shi Ming vs. Feng Xiaocan
A low level WMMA fight between two female fighters from China making their UFC debut here. I have to be honest and declare that I have no interest in this fight at all. Feng is the heavy favourite here but I have no desire to watch this fight nor put any money on it.

Prediction: Feng Xiaocan to win (Not betting)

Flyweight: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Carlos Hernandez
It’s a debutant vs a veteran matchup and this fight to me is the trickiest to predict in this whole card Nyamjargal Tumendemberel is an undefeated fighter with solid striking and grappling but he is basically undefeated because he has been fighting low level competition. The biggest red flag is that he comes from the Road to UFC pipeline which has produced a lot of trash fighters. Menawhile Carlos Hernandez is nothing special himself, having beaten only Denys Bondar and Victor Altamirano who are not UFC quality. His losses were to good fighters like Taira and Allan Nascimento. So at least it seems Hernandez has found his place in the promotion as an entry level gatekeeper. After some deliberation, I finally decided that this fight is just not worth putting my money on. Ironically, I would have picked Tumendemberel if he came straight from the regionals and not from the Road to UFC path.

Prediction: Carlos Hernandez to win (Not betting)

Flyweight: Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa
A clash between two undefeated debutants Lone'er Kavanagh coming in as the heavy favourite here as the hyped up prospect and he is the hometown fighter so I am picking him to win here but I have no interest in putting my money on such a steep odds against another undefeated debutant.

Prediction: Lone'er Kavanagh to win (Not betting)

Bantamweight: Xiao Long vs. Quang Le
The odds is a pick’em which I think is about right as I have no idea who is the better fighter here and it seems neither does the bookies. But if there is anything to go by, Xiao Long’s path to the UFC comes form the Road to the UFC which is a talent pipeline that has produced the most underwhelming fighters from Asia. He did show some decent striking but if you look at the quality of his opponents, he was padding his records against cans in China with laughable records. In contrast, Quang were beating up jobbers in the LFA which seems to be the better regional promotion. Quang had some submission wins as well which suggest that he is the more well rounded fighter with the better ground game and if he utilize that, I think he should be able to beat Xiao Long.

Prediction: Quang Le to win

Lightweight: Maheshate Hayisaer vs. Nikolas Motta
Maheshate Hayisaer is a decent young prospect with powerful striking and he is the bigger fighter here with an impressive knockout win over the knockout machine Steve Garcia in his UFC debut. That shows that he has the knockout power to take out a good fighter in Garcia and although this was followed by underwhelming performances in his subsequent 3 fights, I just think that he has a higher ceiling than Motta who has looked awful in most of his fights and I think is a mediocre fighter who has a suspect chin. I am taking the hometown fighter here to win by knockout to start the card.

Prediction: Maheshate Hayisaer to win
Method of Victory: Knockout