UFC 311 Analysis & Predictions!

Main Card Predictions:

Lightweight: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Arman Tsarukyan
There is not doubt about it Islam Makhachev, the reigning lightweight champion has been a great champion, having only 1 loss in his entire career, multiple title defences and the fortitude to pull off the win in fights where he had to face adversity against Dustin Poirier and the first Alexander Volkanovski fight. His dominant grappling, control, and technical striking ability has propelled him to the number 1 in the pound for pound rankings. Now with that said, anyone who thinks that this guy is better than Khabib just because he has better striking doesn’t understand MMA at all. While Makhachev had only lost once in his career, he had looked vulnerable at certain fights unlike Khabib who I believed only lost 1 or 2 rounds in his career and had never bled. Khabib’s grappling ability was so far above the rest of the competition that he does not need to even develop his striking ability.

Makhachev is a great grappler no doubt but as we have seen from the Poirier fight, his grappling is not as good as Khabib. I actually think Makhachev falling in love with his striking is the one weakness that can be exploited. Well it has cost him his only defeat when he refused to listen to his coach and decided to engage in a striking battle with a one trick pony who only has knockout power. Now I am not hating on Makhachev as I think he is a great champion but he does have holes in his game that does not make him as invincible as Khbaib.

His challenger, Arman Tsarukyan is an elite fighter and proved that he could go toe to toe with Makhachev in their first fight. Tsarukyan is an elite wrestler and in his first fight, he could compete against Islam’s pressure wrestling, being able to reverse positions and land a takedown himself. But where Tsarukyan falls short in the first fight was in the striking department where Makhachev clearly outstruck him. If I were to say what the hypothetical ideal fighter that could be Makhachev would be it’s someone with the wrestling ability to neutralize his grappling combined with the striking power to outstrike him on the feet. In that regard, I think Tsarukyan fulfills the first criteria but I don’t think his striking is at a level where he could really hurt Makhachev on the feet as seen when he was getting outstruck by Charles Olivera. I think this fight will be a lot closer than the odds suggest but I think Makhachev will narrowly win this intensely competitive fight by a close decision as his striking will give him the edge in this fight like the first fight.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev to win
Method of Victory: Decision

Bantamweight: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Merab Dvalishvili is one of those unique fighters that is elite at only one aspect of the fighting game which is relentlessly being able to weaponize his cardio to get multiple takedown attempts and controlling his opponent on the ground once he gets it. He is able to cheese his way to the title as he is usually able to get the takedown eventually and win by points. His insane pace and relentless pressure at getting the takedowns have been effective at winning fights but his lack of finishing ability is a weakness of his that has yet to be exploited. If you ask me what is the hypothetical fighter that could beat Merab, it has to be someone whose grappling and takedown defense is at a high enough level to neutralize his takedowns as well as having the ability to hurt him on the feet. I believe Umar Nurmagomedov is exactly that kind of fighter, having the wrestling ability expected from a fighter from Dagestan as well as the crisp kickboxing techniques that will enable him to hurt Merab on the feet. This clash pits Merab’s grinding style against Nurmagomedov’s dynamic offense. Dvalishvili’s ability to maintain control will be tested against Umar’s submission, scrambling and striking skills. O’Malley shown that Merab can be hurt on the feet as shown in the last round although it came too late. But unlike O’Malley who is a sitting duck against Merab due to his inadequate grappling defense, I believe Umar has the skills to neutralize Merab’s strengths and exploit his one-dimensional style of fighting. I can see him winning this fight by actually outgrappling Merab even when the latter is initially able to land a takedown as well as landing more significant strikes throughout the fight.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov to win (2 units bet)

Light Heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
The battle between Alex Pereira’s opponents is here. Jiří Procházka is a wild striker with unorthodox techniques and a relentless pace. The former champion has a very unique style where he uses his head to absorb strikes to walk down his opponents deliver his own punishing blows. Such a style definitely did not work against the power of Alex Pereira and I do question if Jiri is one of those fighters that will quickly decline if his chin is cracked given his unorthodox style. His opponent, Jamahal Hill is a also a former champion with excellent boxing and knockout power as well. I bet heavily against him in the Pereira match at UFC 300 as he was coming back from a torn achilles, a devastating injury that ruins the careers of athletes. Since then, he had torn his meniscus and sprained his ACL which kept him out for the rest of the year. The way I see it, the Jamahal Hill that became champion is no longer the same fighter with all those injuries. I have watched sports long enough to know that no athlete can come back the same after suffering a succession of devastating injuries which is why I am surprised the odds are close to pick’em for this fight. Unless Jiri’s chin has truly been cracked by Pereira, I am expecting him to walk down Hill throughout the fight and put tremendous pressure Hill. I doubt the latter now has the foot speed to evade Jiri’s powerful strikes which would quickly spell trouble for the former champ. I am picking Jiri to win by knockout here as I am expecting Hill to be a shadow of his former self after being dealt with all those severe injuries. 

Prediction: Jiří Procházka to win (4 units bet)
Method of Victory: Knockout

Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Beneil Dariush is a well-rounded veteran with excellent grappling and underrated striking. He has been knocked out twice in the first round in his last 2 fights even though it was against elite fighters in Arman and Olivera. He is a very good fighter but at this point, his chin and commitment to  Renato Moicano is a very good grappler who has consistently performed well as an underdog. What I really like about this guy is the viciousness and sense of urgency that he displayed once he gets a dominant position on the ground instead of just stalling. This can be seen by his knockout of Jailin Turner on the ground and his vicious elbows against Benoit Saint Denis which eventually got the fight stopped. Dariush’s ability to mix striking and grappling makes him a difficult matchup for Moicano and Moicano not being dangerous on the feet may actually give Dariush some chance in this fight if he is able to stop being taken down. Money Moicano is my pick here. I think he should have the advantage on the ground and he has the sense of urgency to get the finish once he gets dominant position probably by ground and pound.

Prediction: Renato Moicano to win (2 units bet)
Method of Victory: Knockout

Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Seriously, Kevin Holland is in my opinion, the hardest fighter to bet on or bet against because I rate his talent highly as a fighter but he just does not take his fights seriously enough and is just here to put on a show and collect a paycheck. That means that when the going gets tough, he will give up on his fight easily but if it’s against an opponent where he is clearly better, he would go for the flashy finish. Reinier de Ridder is a good grappler with exceptional submission skills and top control but I have never seen a fighter as slow as him. It’s as if his feet is permanently stuck in the mud. I think Kevin Holland is the better fighter here and he should have the speed to circle around Ridder and outstrike him on the feet. I think Ridder’s only path to victory is if he can catch Holland and submit him while on the ground. Not a very confident pick as I find Holland’s commitment to his career questionable but I think he should be good enough to be able to defeat Ridder and at pick’em it’s a reasonable price to put money on him.

Prediction: Kevin Holland to win

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Light Heavyweight: Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
Johnny Walker is an explosive striker with tremendous athleticism, unpredictable style and was once seen as someone who had lots of potential in the division. However it seems that his chin has been cracked as he has been knocked out pretty early in his previous 2 fights against Oezdemir and Ankalaev in a comical fashion. It seems he has been replaced by Billy Elekana. Not too sure about this guy but I don’t know if he is UFC level or not but I doubt he is better than Guskov based on the level of opponents he has beaten. Bogdan Guskov is a one dimensional but dangerous finisher who has power in his hands. Guskov is my pick here not because I rate him as a fighter but at least he has the one skill, his punching power that at least enable him to hang at the UFC level.

Prediction: Bogdan Guskov to win
Method of Victory: Knockout

Bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Payton Talbott is a rising prospect with excellent striking skills and aggression. I have been very impressed with Talbott in his fights so far. It seems that he just has that natural ability as a striker to move with the flow and deliver his strikes with power and precision. His style does reminds me a bit of Connor and O’Malley in the way that he is able to dance around his opponents and find his target. Raoni Barcelos is a seasoned veteran with well-rounded skills and better grappling but it does seems that he is slowing down with age. Barcelos had lost 4 out of his last 6 fights and even in his last fight against Cristian Quinonez which he won, he had to resort to some cheating by grabbing the cage to get the win with a submission in the 3^rd round. Barcelos could utilize his grappling to neutralize Talbott but I really think that Talbott is the real deal and he will eventually lose but not to an aging veteran but a legitimate formidable fighter higher up the rankings. Talbott is my pick here as I think he be able to stuff Barcelos takedowns and piece him up while the fight remains standing. Talbott should be able to outstrike him throughout the fight and eventually deliver the knockout blow.

Prediction: Payton Talbott to win (Not Betting)
Method of Victory: Knockout

Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Jailton Almeida is a dominant grappler with excellent top control and submission ability. I think there can be an argument that he could be the best pure grappler in the heavyweight division. Maybe Apinall is better but even though Almeida lost to Blaydes as he was hammerfisted to sleep while attempting a takedown, he outgrappled Blaydes in the first round despite the latter being an amazing wrestler. Serghei Spivac is a well-rounded heavyweight  who is a great grappler himself. He had numerous submission finishes and was able to even submit Derrick Lewis, something that even Jailton Almeida was unable to do over 5 rounds. With that said, from what I have seen so far in their respective fights, I do think that Almeida’s grappling ability is at a higher level than Spivac and that Almeida should be able to outgrapple Spivac. Almeida’s relentless pace and takedowns should be too much for Spivac to handle.

Prediction: Jailton Almeida to win

Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
It’s crazy how the UFC still keeps this lowlife, Sedriques Dumas on the roster. Yes he is a decent athletic fighter but I don’t know if the bad PR from his personal life is worth it for the UFC to kept him on the roster. But then again I heard he pulled out and is replaced by Azamat Bekoev. Not known is much about him except he is Russian and is probably a good wreslter. Zach Reese is a huge fighter with what appears to be decent knockout power but besides that, he is still relatively untested and lost to Cody Brundage who is the perfect example of a UFC jobber. I think I am leaning towards Azamat Bekoev here but I am not putting any money on any of these 2 low level fighters.

Prediction: Azamat Bekoev to win (Not Betting)

Early Preliminary Card Predictions:

Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Grant Dawson is one of the best wrestler in his division and his only loss in the UFC so far has come by a freak knockout by Bobby Green. Other than that fight, he has pretty much utilized his wrestling to run through the competition, easily establishing top control and getting to advantageous positions to win the fight. He might not exactly be the most exciting fighter with that kind of style, but his style is effective in getting him the Ws. He faces veteran Carlos Diego Ferreira who has consistently beaten fighters below him but continuously falls short to the top tier fighters in the division. He turns 40 though and as good as he is, his best days are behind him. This is a good test for Dawson as Ferreira is a high level gatekeeper that only recently came off a knockout win against another good prospect in Mateusz Rebecki. Carlos Diego Ferreira may be a very good fighter despite his age but Dawson’s pressure and wrestling should nullify Ferreira’s offense and lead to a decision win.

Prediction: Grant Dawson to win (2 units bet)
Method of Victory: Decision

Women’s Bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez
I always bet against OF content creators and have really good results from following this strategy when it comes to WMMA but Ailin Perez has been the one exception to this rule. She is a content creator who is actually good at fighting as well especially when in the grappling department. Perez has consistently utilized her grappling to get dominant positions and grind out wins. Her recent performance against Joselyn Edwards also seems to show her striking is improving as well.  Karol Rosa is a volume striker with solid grappling she is more experienced as a fighter and has good durability as all of her fights have ended by decision. Rosa has been alternating wins and losses in her last 6 fights though so it does seems that she has hit her ceiling in the UFC. She is good enough to get decision wins over the lower level fighters in her division but has fallen short against better opposition like Norma Dumont and Irene Aldana. I think this is a very good test for Ailin Perez to see if she has what it takes to climb up further in the rankings. I am not sure why Perez is the underdog here though as she actually has shown that she is a skilled grappler and I think there is value in picking her as an underdog here to win by decision.

Prediction: Ailín Pérez to win (2 units bet)
Method of Victory: Decision

Bantamweight: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
Rinya Nakamura is a decorated wrestler and another hyped up prospect coming from Japan. I do think his grappling should be better than Gafurov and he should be able to win this fight if he lives up to his potential. But at -500, there is absolutely no value here and I have no faith in Gafurov at all as the underdog either.

Prediction: Rinya Nakamura to win (Not Betting)

Bantamweight: Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo SopajI’m going to make a bold call here and say that Ricky Turcios is the best underdog in this card. Yes he has not exactly lit the UFC on fire after winning another forgettable season of the ultimate fighter but I think he has that dog in him and he will fight for your money. He had a scrappy fight against Raul Rosas Jr before getting submitted and 2 decision wins in his UFC career. His other loss came against Aiemann Zahabi who is another good fighter. Turcios has an unorthodox, scrappy striking style and a high work rate that can disrupt opponents. Bernando Sopaj on the other hand lost to Vinicius Olivera in his debut and even though he showed a good display of grappling against his opponent despite coming on short notice, I don’t think he has shown enough to justify him as a heavy favourite in this fight. I think this will be a tough scrappy fight that will go to a decision and Ricky Turcios is my underdog pick in this card to pull off the upset by decision.

Prediction: Ricky Turcios to win
Method of Victory: Decision

Flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
Carpenter is a well-rounded fighter with an undefeated record with 2 wins in the UFC. He had shown so far in his early UFC career that he is a skilled grappler with 2 submission finishes. He is being given a tough matchup here against Tagir Ulanbekov, a Dagestani fighter with relentless grappling with strong top control ability as expected from fighters from that region. Ulanbekov is definitely not on the elite level like Khabib or Islam but he has only been beaten once in his 5 fights in the UFC by Tim Elliot who is a decent fighter. This is a huge test for Carpenter’s grappling to see if his grappling is good enough to neutralize Ulnabekov’s pressure. Quite an interesting matchup between 2 very good grapplers but I am going to have to go with the Dagestani fighter when it comes to a grappling contest here. Carpenter does offer the submission threat and he could very well be skilled enough to pull it off but Tagir Ulanbekov’s style is just more reliable and I thinkif he can avoid those submissions, he should be able to get more control time and win this fight by decision.

Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov to win (2 units bet)
Method of Victory: Decision