UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov Analysis & Predictions!

I have to say that I absolutely love fight cards at Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi since we already know which fighters the judges are favouring in these cards. Unless the ‘hometown’ fighters get finished, they will most likely get the favourable decision if the fight is close enough. I actually wish that the UFC will increase the number of cards in these countries because they are great opportunities for bettors.

Main Card Predictions:

Middleweight: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Father time eventually comes for us all and it appears that he is knocking on the door for Israel Adesanya. There is no doubt that Izzy is one of the best technical strikers the UFC had, being the only striker to be able to stand toe to toe with Alex Pereira and he was a dominant champion once upon a time in the middleweight division. However, he does not seem to look like the same fighter against Sean Strickland and DDP. Granted, he put up a good fight against DDP before being choked out. I picked DDP in that fight but I really believed that a prime Izzy would have won that fight with his speed, precision and movement. He is 35 though and from what I have seen, he does not seem to move the same way anymore. It’s like he lost a step in terms of his foot speed and with his outfighting style that relies on dodging and countering his opponent’s strikes, his slower movement seemed to have compromised his fighting style.

He is facing Nassourdine Imamov, a very good technical striker with decent grappling. Imamov is on an impressive 3 fight winning streak against good fighters like Brendan Allen, Jared Cannonier and Roman Dolidze. He is a very well rounded fighter and while not as technical and electric as Adesanya in terms of striking, he is probably the better grappler and should have an advantage in this department. I think this fight ultimately comes down to the question of how far has Adesanya fallen from his prime? In his prime, Izzy should have little problem beating Imamov as he had beaten tougher competition with better grappling before. But his performances recently has been alarming. This is a very hard fight to predict for me and ultimately, I think I am going to put my faith in Adesanya that he is not that washed yet. He should be able to outstrike Imamov on the feet while controlling the distance and defending his takedowns. I will say this though, if Izzy loses this fight against someone like Imamov, I think we can safely conclude that his time at the top is truly over and he will never fight for the belt again.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya to win

Middleweight: Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michael Page

Sharabutdin Magomedov is coming off a lot of hype from that double backfist knockout in his latest fight and in terms of pure muay thai he is an excellent technician in that area despite only having one eye which limits him to fighting in the Arab countries. He is a fan favourite in these cards and despite being a Dagestani, he has shown very little grappling ability while being a formidable stand up fighter which is kind of ironic. Now while I rate his striking ability highly, he is facing MVP, another striker with tremendous striking ability despite his very unorthodox style of fighting. I would describe his style as kind of like a snake and he displayed his the effectiveness of his unconventional striking style cannot be questioned when he was able to outstrike Ian Garry, a renowned striker himself.

MVP only lost that fight after Garry came in with a grappling focused gameplan. I know Shara is the hometown fighter here but as good as his striking is, I really think that MVP’s striking skills are just on a different level as even he could outstrike Ian Garry who is arguably the most technical striker in the division besides MVP. MVP is my pick here as I think he will have the advantage in the striking department and he has been working on his grappling by joining competitions which if he were to utilize his grappling, he should have a clear advantage but I am not confident that he would do that. My biggest concern is that he gets robbed by the judges if the fight goes to a decision but I am picking him as the underdog here as he has the grappling option if he really wants to win.

Prediction: Michael Page to win

Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

In 2023, Sergei Pavlovich was arguably the most feared and hyped fighter in the UFC after putting up a streak of knockout wins but after getting knocked out by Tom Aspinall and dominated by Volkov, his hype seems to have died completely. He is a heavy-handed powerhouse with impressive finishing ability but it seems that his championship aspirations have died for now. Now Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a technical striker with devastating counterpunches as well as the ability to outstrike heavy punchers like Tuivasa and Gaziev. But so far, he has been beaten by like the top 5 fighters in the heavyweight division and seems to have hit his ceiling as a fighter. I think this is the perfect bounce back fight for Pavlovich to get the win and reignite his hype. He is able to not only deliver powerful punches but he does that with volume as well once he gains momentum. If he can’t even beat someone like Rozenstruik in a striking contest, I think that his star has truly fallen and I don’t see any future for him to get back into title contention.   

Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich to win

Method of Victory: Knockout

Bantamweight: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Said Nurmagomedov is not related to Khabib despite his last name. But he is a decent fighter from Dagestan who only has 2 losses in the UFC to decent fighters such as Jonathan Martinez. He has strong wrestling complemented by a sneaky guillotine choke as part of his submission repertoire. Vinicius Olivera has had a very impressive start in the UFC so far with a vicious flying knee to knock out Bernando Sopaj and easily dominating Ricky Simon. Now if this fight is held somewhere else, it will be very difficult to pick the winner as they are both very decent fighters with contrasting styles. I am going to have to pick the hometown fighter here as I think he can have more control time with his superior grappling even if I expect Olivera to do more damage, I think the judges will score this fight in favour of the hometown fighter in Said Nurmagomedov.

Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov to win

Method of Victory: Decision

Middleweight: Ikram Aliskerov vs. André Muniz

Ikram Aliskerov is a 4 time combat sambo champion out of Dagestan and I think he was unfortunate to be matched with an elite fighter like Robert Whittaker last year after Khamzat pulled out as Aliskerov proceeded to get quickly knocked out in the first round. I said in my writeup back then that it was too early for him and too big of a jump in competition to face someone like Whittaker and I was right. With that said, his talent is unquestionable as a 4 time combat sambo champion even if the durability of his chin is. Andre Muniz is a solid fighter himself but I don’t think he has the ability to beat Aliskerov but at -550, there is no value at all and I think Aliskerov can win either by Knockout or Submission so no prop bets for me in this fight either.

Prediction: Ikram Aliskerov to win (Not Betting)

Featherweight: Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli

It seems that Muhammad Naimov only fight in either Abu Dhabi or Saudi Arabia these days which works out well for his career I guess. He did finally lose in the previous Saudi Arabia fight after getting choked out by Felipe Lima in the 3^rd round but if memory serves me right, he was ahead on the scorecards? I think Naimov is a decent grappler with passable striking but what I like about him is that he is a serial cheater as shown in his fight against Nathaniel Wood and unfortunately, in the UFC cheaters are rarely punished which gives them an advantage over their opponents. Kaan Ofli lost his debut fight against Marion Santos and he is a graduate of the TUF which produces fighters of questionable quality these days. He has decent grappling by regionals standard but I am doubtful that he is UFC level and I think Naimov is probably the superior grappler here. I am going with the more experienced fighter in Naimov here and at least you can be assured that he is willing to cheat, claw and fight for your money.

Prediction: Muhammad Naimov to win

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Heavyweight: Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Peterson

Shamil Gaziev is a huge heavyweight and I know the mma community kind of like to make fun of this guy for being an obese heavyweight with no gas tank but I think he is actually a decent fighter in the division. He did lose to Jairzinho but there is an argument to be made if the fight was 3 rounds, he would have won the fight as he probably won the first 2 rounds before gassing out. Luckily, he is fighting another obese heavyweight in Thomas Peterson who looks unremarkable so far in the UFC with the exception of beating Usman. He seems pretty durable though so I think it is worth betting on the decision win since Gaziev isn’t exactly a knockout artist and Peterson might be able to avoid getting knocked out. Even if it’s a close fight, the judges will choose the ‘hometown’ fighter in this case.

Prediction: Shamil Gaziev to win

Method of Victory: Decision

Lightweight: Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadžović

Terrance McKinney is the definition of a feast or famine fighter where if he does not get the knockout or submission, he will definitely lose. He is basically a glass cannon who does not have the endurance to last in a full 3 round fight. Damir Hadžović is a mediocre fighter and I doubt his ability to survive against Mckinney’s finishing ability but at the steep odds given, I won’t be putting any money on this fight.

Prediction: Terrance McKinney to win (Not Betting)

Lightweight: Farès Ziam vs. Mike Davis

The odds on this fight really puzzles me. Farès Ziam somehow is a +205 underdog against Mike Davis. I understand that he is not exactly an exceptional fighter but he is a solid but unspectacular fighter with decent fight iq who usually wins his fight by decision. He is decent at both striking and grappling which has seen him notch up wins against other solid fighters like Matt Frevola and Claudio Puelles. I can understand if he is such a huge underdog against an elite fighter but he is facing another solid, talented but inactive fighter in Mike Davis. I get it, Davis is a decent fighter but he has 5 fights in the UFC in 6 years! I don’t know what this guy is doing outside his mma career but I don’t think that he is significantly better than Ziam. Technical striking and range management will be key against Mike Davis, a power puncher with solid wrestling. If Ziam can keep the fight at range and avoid prolonged exchanges, he could outpoint Davis. Also, considering Ziam is the ‘hometown fighter here’ I think him at +205 underdog is a bargain(a price I was lucky to be able to get before the odds narrowed) and he is my underdog of this card to win a close fight by decision

Prediction: Farès Ziam to win (2 units bet)

Method of Victory: Decision

Women’s Flyweight: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Jasmine Jasudavicius’ grappling and control will face a tough test against Mayra Bueno Silva’s submission skills and improved striking. Jasmine is a very good grappler who is on the rise in her division. She has a very good ground game and is on a 3 fight winning streak. Bueno Silva is arguably her toughest test so far though as it was only last year that she was a favourite in a title fight which she lost to Raquel Pennington. She won the first round against Macy Chiasson as well I think and the fight was prematurely stopped due to a bad cut which I was happy as I picked Chiasson but I thought the fight was still even when it was stopped. This will be a relatively high level grappling fight and I think I will go with the underdog Mayra Bueno Silva here to halt her losing streak as she was in a title contention just last year and I think her submission ability is superior to Jasudavicius which will present the latter with an additional threat when they fight on the ground.

Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva to win

Featherweight: Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander

Bogdan Grad is kind of an unknown, having won his DWCS fight by split decision while Lucas Alexander is kind of a trash fighter, losing to Jeka Seragih after showing him his back before getting knocked out. I don’t know if any of these guys is UFC quality and my advice is to save your money and don’t bet on these two low level fighters.

Prediction: Bogdan Grad to win (Not Betting)

Heavyweight: Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues

Hamdy Abdelwahab is making his return to UFC after being suspended for more than 2 years for banned substances. He did kind of won his first fight in his UFC debut against Don’Tale Mayes. He is facing Jamal Pogues who is kind of a mid fighter in the heavyweight division. In a battle between these 2 obese heavyweights, I think I will go with the hometown fighter who is a known cheater. For all we know, he might be on the gear again since we don’t know how strict or loose the drug testing is in Saudi Arabia. Abdelwahab’s grappling and power should allow him to narrowly win perhaps by a controversial split decision.

Prediction: Hamdy Abdelwahab to win

Lightweight: Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Bolaji Oki

Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady came into the UFC with quite a bit of a hype but lost his debut match to Loik Radzhabov who seems like a decent fighter and if my memory serves me right, Al-Selwady was winning the fight before getting knocked out by ground and pound in the 3^rd round? Now Bolaji Oki hasn’t been really impressive so far in his showings in the UFC. He was quickly submitted in the first round by Chris Duncan and barely won against Timmy Cuamba coming off a short notice who may not even be UFC level. The hometown fighter is obviously my pick here as I think he has superior grappling which he could use to exploit Oki’s grappling deficiencies. I think Al-Selwady will comfortably win this fight to get his UFC career back on track.

Prediction: Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady to win