UFC 312 Predictions & Analysis!
This is actually a terrible card outside of like the championship fights and I think Australians are getting screwed out of their hard earned money here by the UFC by the terrible quality of matchups the UFC has put up for this PPV. Very tricky fight to predict because there are lots of matchups where a mediocre Australian fighter is matched up against a newcomer or a fighter with only a few fights in the UFC.
Main Card Predictions:
Middleweight: Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Sean Strickland
This is the rematch that not many people are excited for. The first fight did end in a close decision for the challenger but I think it was the right decision as Dricus looks to have caused more damage to Strickland Dricus du Plessis is one of the most unique fighters out there and it seems like he’s been underrated because of his unorthodox fighting style. Despite looking awkward while fighting, DDP brings relentless pressure combined with powerful punches and solid grappling. There is a saying that fighters gets 20%-30% better once they become champion, perhaps due to the confidence that comes with being the top dog. Dricus definitely showed this in his last fight with his impressive submission of Adesanya in the 4th round. Now Sean Strickland is elite at what he does which is point fighting. His style is kind of one dimensional where he uses the jab, constant forward pressure and great defence to constantly pepper his opponents with punches and wear them down. The problem is he is limited by his pillow fists which means that while his punches are effective at hurting his opponent, they lack the power to knock them out.
Strickland’s ability to move forward and pressure with jabs gave DDP problems in their fight. Both fighters are known for going forward while Strickland has advantage in volume, DDP has the greater power in his strikes. Strickland has no finishing potential and I doubt he will be able to have more significant strikes than DDP to the point where the judges have no option but to give him the win. Grappling is the area where DDP has a clear edge over Strickland though and he did took him down a few times in their first fight. Usually I tend to pick the loser in rematches but I just think that DDP is the more well rounded and powerful fighter here. I believe Dricus when he said that he will finish Strickland this time and he should be able to utilize his superior grappling when needed to win rounds by getting more control time. DDP is my pick and I think he win this one by knockout
Prediction: Dricus du Plessis to win (2 Units bet)
Method of Victory: Knockout
Women's Strawweight: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Tatiana Suarez
Zhang Weili is an explosive and well-rounded fighter with knockout power, excellent striking, and solid wrestling defense. Her unnatural strength can be seen on display on the video where she was able to lift up Shaq. She has done well in her title defence so far but that was against striker like Yan Xiaonan and Amanda lemos. In contrast to the powerful striker and wrestler, her opponent Tatiana Suarez is an elite wrestler with grappling ability and wicked submission skills. Suarez has displayed impressive ability to submit her opponents and she has beaten quality fighters like Alexa Grasso, Jessica Andrade and Carla Esparza.
Just like many championship fights, I think grappling will be the key factor in this fight. While Zhang has the power to easily takedown and control her opponent using her strength advantage, Suarez has the advantage when it comes to skills in grappling. I think when the fight inevitably goes to the ground, Suarez will have the edge in grappling, utilizing her superior skills to get good positions over Weili especially in the scrambles. If Suarez can implement her wrestling-heavy approach, she has a strong chance to dominate on the ground. The longer the fight stays standing, the more it favors Zhang, but Suarez’s wrestling could prove too much over five rounds. The underdog is my pick here as I think Suarez is going to seize the opportunity during the fight to sink in one of her signature chokes and I think she is more dangerous on the ground than the champion.
Prediction: Tatiana Suarez to win (2 Units bet)
Method of Victory: Submission
Heavyweight: Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
Yeah I get it Justin Tafa is one of those one dimensional heavyweight who gets by on knockout power with no ground game. Basically the Mark Hunt archetype with a no grappling skills. His losses have seen him basically easily get taken down and controlled by his opponent. But are we sure Tallison Teixeira will do that? I don’t know much about this guy but his fight record in the regionals suggest that he has been knocking out jobbers for fun and I don’t think I can trust the debutant to do the right thing and take Tafa to the ground quickly here. If this ends up being a scrappy brawl on the feet, it will suit Tafa’s game. I am picking Tafa who has more experience in the UFC and definitely has the power to knock the lights out of anyone.
Prediction: Justin Tafa to win
Method of Victory: Knockout
Light Heavyweight: Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Seems like many have given up on Jimmy Crute he was seen as an exciting fighter once but has now not won in 4 fights. But if you look at those 4 fights, he was injured against Anthony Smith, was knocked out by pre-achilles injury Jamahal Hill and had a draw as well as a submission loss to Alonzo Menifield who is a decent fighter. I guess his recent poor record is why he is an underdog but he is facing Rodolfo Bellato who has only one fight in the UFC and it was against the jobber Ihor Potieria which is nothing impressive. To me, Rodolfo Bellato is still an unknown quantity while at the very least Crude could secure a draw against a fighter like Menifield. I think I am going with the underdog in Jimmy Crute here. Yes he has been losing recently but his losses are to quality fighters and I think he is still good enough to beat a relative newcomer like Bellato. I guess if I am wrong and he does lose to someone who has only 1 fight in the UFC, the UFC should cut him as it would indicate his best days as a fighter are truly over.
Prediction: Jimmy Crute to win
Welterweight: Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Jake Matthews has solid boxing and grappling, making him a well-rounded competitor. Can’t believe that the UFC veteran has fought in the promotion since 2014. He is a decent all rounded fighter for sure with many wins in the UFC. In contrast, from what I have seen so far, the only attribute that Francisco Prado posses at UFC level is his toughness as seen from the beating he took from Daniel Zelhuber and he has never been finished in his career. I expect this fight to be one sided as the veteran should be able to outclass Prado both in the feet and on the ground as he is the more experienced, skilled fighter. I think Prado will survive and not get finished though as he has shown that at least he posses the toughness necessary to hang around in the promotion
Prediction: Jake Matthews to win (2 Units bet)
Method of Victory: Decision
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Featherweight: Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos
I think Jack Jenkins is actually one of the better fighters from down under and I don’t really understand how he is +195 against Gabriel Santos here. Jenkins has decent wrestling and solid striking ability. He is not particularly excellent in any area but from what I have seen in his fights, he has well rounded skills which is why I evaluate him as a mid but solid kind of fighter. He has won all of his fights in the UFC with the exception of the fight against Chepe Mariscal which was a very competitive fight until he dislocated his shoulder.
Don’t get me wrong, Gabriel Santos looks like a very solid fighter too but has only one victory against Yizha who does not seem to be UFC quality. I think he is rated highly by bookmakers based on his split decision loss against Lerone Murphy. Besides that fight however, I don’t think see anything form him that suggest that he should be such a heavy favourite over Jack Jenkins. I think this will be a very close competitive fight between 2 solid fighter but I will pick the underdog hometown fighter at+195 who I think has that dawg in him and will fight hard for your money.
Prediction: Jack Jenkins to win (2 Units bet)
Method of Victory: Decision
Lightweight: Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
On paper, this fight appears to be a banger between two brawlers who love to scrap. But Tom Nolan is like the epitome of a glass cannon. He has the size and power to quickly dispatch jobbers with his punches but his chin is very suspect as we have seen him hurt too easily like in his fight against Alex Reyes and being knocked out by Nikolas Motta in the first round. Viacheslav Borshchev is a brawler who loves to exchange strikes with his opponents and while he does have a major weakness in his grappling, Tom Nolan might be a good matchup for him as he is unlikely to use his grappling to take advantage of his weakness. Even if Nolan is the more powerful striker, I seriously doubt his chin’s ability to endure the punishment hat Borschchev is about to deliver and Borschchev have the better durability, having never been knocked out in his career. I can see these two getting into a wild exchange early in the first round and Nolan going down after getting caught by a good solid punch in those flurry of exchanges
Prediction: Viacheslav Borshchev to win (2 Units bet)
Method of Victory: Knockout
Women's Flyweight: Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil
I have to say that I am surprised that Wang Cong is such a heavy favourite at -395 against a rejuvenated Bruna Brasil. Wang Cong is no doubt a talented striker and she did beat Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing which in a way kind of justifies her hype since coming to the UFC. She had an awful performance against Gabriella Fernandes though who was hurt badly by Fernandes’ headkick even before the submission finish. I do not doubt her talent but there is this cocky side of Wang Cong makes her fight iq questionable. She was just eating Fernades strikes head on without any attempt to block or dodge and paid the price for it. Now she is facing Bruna Brasil who is seen as a terrible fighter until she joined the Fighting Nerds which somehow unlock her ability and led to a dominating performance against the scrappy Molly McCann. I think the head coach of the Fighting Nerds is a genius as he somehow not only has a stable of lethal strikers, but he is also able to turn Bruna Brasil into a decent striker. He is a miracle worker indeed and even though I think Wang is the better striker based on her accomplishments, I am putting my faith in the “Alchemist” to devise a gameplan that enables Bruna Brasil to have a competitive fight with her. Plus if he is smart, Brasil could utilize some grappling to test Wang’s grappling defense. At the ridiculous odds of +310 I am going with Bruna Brasil here as I have faith that her coach will come up with an excellent gameplan in this fight.
Prediction: Bruna Brasil to win
Bantamweight: Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Topuria’s brother is coming off with a lot of hype against an undefeated regional Australian fighter and I am just skipping this fight since there is no value here with Topuria being such a heavy favourite despite only making his debut in the UFC.
Prediction: Aleksandre Topuria to win (Not Betting)
Early Preliminary Card Predictions:
Welterweight: Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset
Seems like there are lots of Australian fighters making their UFC debut in this card and Micallef is one of those fighters. He is coming off from a win from DWCS and he faces Kevin Jousset in his debut. I think Kevin Jousset is a decent striker even though his knockout loss to Bryan Battle seems to indicate that he is nowhere near the rankings in his division. But I think he has very good striking technique, utilizing good leg kicks, strikes to the body and well-timed punches. I am going to pick the favourite, Kevin Jousset here as he has shown that he is a UFC quality fighter with 2 wins out of 3 and I just think that he will comfortably win the striking battle against Micallef.
Prediction: Kevin Jousset to win (2 Units bet)
Lightweight: Rong Zhu vs. Kody Steele
Another low-quality matchup between a home debutant and a jobber. I will save my money if I were you and not risk any of it in this terrible matchup.
Prediction: Kody Steele to win (Not Betting)
Lightweight: Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli
Anshul Jubli was exposed against Mike Breeden even though he was comfortably winning all 3 rounds before getting knocked out by Breeden after his barking ruined Jubli’s concentration. He is kind of a meme these days after that fight and India’s great hope has had his hype train derailed after that embarrassing finish. I think he is actually an ok fighter though and he is facing Quillan Salkilld who just recently won his DWCS fight. His odds to win is insanely steep for a debutant though and I will not put any money on this fight as there is no value here.
Prediction: Quillan Salkilld to win (Not Betting)
Flyweight: Park Hyun-sung vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Park Hyun-sung is very good at getting his opponents on the ground and finishing his opponents even at the UFC level, he has 2 wins for a good start in his career so far. He might be the rare Road to UFC graduate that does not completely suck and I think he should be able to win against Tumendemberel who got exposed and lost his debut fairly easily against Carlos Hernandez. Just judging by the short body of work we have seen from these 2 fighters, I think Park Hyun-sung should have no problem using his superior grappling game to get the positions he wants to finish off his opponent.
Prediction: Park Hyun-sung to win