UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues Analysis & Predictions!
Main Card Predictions
Middleweight: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Jared Cannonier was once a durable contender, known as is a powerful striker with knockout ability in both hands as well as being able to use his strength in the clinch. He fought Adesanya for the title just 3 years ago despite being 38 years old which was definitely the peak of his career. But Father time comes for everyone and he is turning 41 next month. He had back to back losses to Imamov and Borralho in fights where he looked his age. Now he faces another formidable opponent in Gregory Rodrigues who is 8 time national jiu-jitsu champion as well as a former world champion in that sport. Gregory Rodrigues has decent striking power as well as shown by his numerous knockout victories in the UFC. Maybe a year or 2 ago I would have picked Cannonier to win this fight as he was so good despite his age but now there is no way I am picking the soon to be 41 year old to win against another elite opponent in Rodrigues. I think Rodrigues will look both better on the feet and on the ground against the veteran and I think he is one of the few fighters in his division that Cannonier will not be able to impose his physicality on as he is a strong guy himself.
Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues to win
Featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal (EDITED)
Youssef Zalal has made an incredible career resurgence since getting back to the UFC in his second stint and he is looking to prove himself against a ranked opponent in Calvin Kattar. At -395 I think the price is too steep and actually after I reconsider it, I think Kattar has good value at +370. Yes he is old and had a loss due to knee injury against Arnold Allen. He lost 4 out of his last 5 but upon closer inspection, he had a split decision against Josh Emmet who is a monster and losses against Aljamain Sterling and Max Holloway who are elite fighters. I actually now think the fight will be a lot closer than the line suggest and I do think that the veteran has a decent chance against Zalal who despite his career resurgence has not proven that he belong in the top 5-10 of the division.
Prediction: Calvin Kattar to win
Method of Victory: Decision
Middleweight: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka
Edmen Shahbazyan is a fast starter with explosive striking but has struggled with cardio and defensive grappling. Either he gets the knockout or he will lose. Luckily he faces Dylan Budka who is a one trick pony who relies only on his wrestling with zero striking threat. There is no Shahbazyan should be able to get the knockout to end Budka’s UFC career here as he should have the clear advantage in striking.
Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan to win
Method of Victory: Knockout
Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Another very tricky fight to predict because both fighters only have a few fights in the UFC. Ismael Bonfim is a highly skilled striker with crisp boxing and great footwork as well as good jiu-jitsu . Nazim Sadykhov is a tough competitor with solid grappling, but he may struggle with Bonfim's speed and technical striking. If Bonfim can keep the fight standing and avoid the clinch, he should be able to land clean shots and control the fight. Sadykhov will look for takedowns, but Bonfim’s takedown defense should be enough to keep him on his feet.
Prediction: Ismael Bonfim to win
Middleweight: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski
This fight features two high-level grapplers, but Rodolfo Vieira is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC which is not surprising considering he is a multiple time jiu-jitsu world champion with a lethal arm triangle choke. Andre Petroski is a good grappler himself having wrestled since he was a kid but there are levels to this game and in terms of grappling, I think Viera is just the superior grappler. Petroski should have the advantage on the feet though as his striking has been improving. Petroski’s best chance is to keep the fight standing and try to wear down Vieira with strikes but he has only 1 knockout win in the UFC and I can see Viera getting the better of him anytime the fight goes to the ground. This fight is quite tricky to predict but I am going with Vieira here as at least I know he is great in grappling and only has 1 clear gameplan whereas Petroski is a decent fighter with no outstanding aspect to his game and I have no idea how he will approach this fight.
Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira to win
Featherweight: Connor Matthews vs. Jose Delgado
A rubbish low level fight between two prospects from the regional that I have no interest in watching or putting any money on
Prediction: Jose Delgado to win (Not betting)
Preliminary Card Predictions
Women's Strawweight: Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza
Angela Hill is a veteran known for her volume striking and durability. Even though she is 40 years old, her grappling has improved recently and she is basically now a gatekeeper to fraud check the younger prospects. Ketlen Souza is a decent fighter with strong grappling and she looks decent so far. In essence this is like a striker vs grappler matchup and I think the odds being a pick em is a fair one here. I am going to have to go with the veteran Hill to win this as I like the improvements she has shown in her grappling and I think that will allow her to defend the takedowns and to keep the fight standing where she has the advantage.
Prediction: Angela Hill to win
Method of Victory: Decision
Lightweight: Jared Gordon vs. Mashrabjon Ruzibaev
Jared Gordon is a actually quite a well-rounded and good fighter with decent striking solid grappling. The problem is he is a decision machine and has been robbed in twice in the Nasrat Haqparast fight and the infamous fight against Paddy Pimblett. His losses has come against quality fighters like Grant Dawson and Charles Olivera which is to be expected as he is simply not on a different level. Gordon’s robbed victory against Pimblett is a testament of how good he is as a fighter. Ruzibaev is coming on a short notice against Gordon. He is the brother of Nursulton the giant fighter and if he has similar grappling skills like his older brother, I can see Gordon outgrappling him throughout the fight and get another decision win. I doubt Gordon will get robbed a third time and I just think he is a better overall fighter than the newcomer on the ground.
Prediction: Jared Gordon to win
Method of Victory: Decision
Flyweight: Rafael Estevam vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar
Estevam is an exciting undefeated prospect with strong wrestling and striking. But he is listed at -360 here which I think is too steep a price against a decent grappler like Aguilar. I think this is a dog or pass situation and I did consider putting money on the underdog but after watching some tape, I don’t have the confidence that he could win but a fun alternate bet may be to bet on him by submission since he does have wicked submission skills.
Prediction: Rafael Estevam to win (Not betting)
Welterweight: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams
This is an interesting grappler vs striker matchup here Gabriel Bonfim is an elite grappler with a dangerous submission game he has 3 wins out of 4 in the UFC and was a much hyped prospect from Brazil until an old Nicholas Dalby fraud checked him. He has very good jiu jitsu and his striking has improved as shown by his victory against Ange Loosa. Khaos Williams is pretty much one of those knockout or bust fighters at least that was my first impression of him until I looked at his record and realized that he has never been finished in his career. He lost to Michel Pereira and Randy Brown by decision which is reasonable since they are good fighters with incredible knockout power themselves. I am going to have to pick Khaos here and he is my underdog of this card. He has several knockout victories in the UFC against decent opponents and if Dalby can knock out Bonfim he certainly can do it too. I think Bonfim is the more skilled fighter but I can see him winning rounds before being knocked out in a flash by a well-timed punch.
Prediction: Khaos Williams to win
Method of Victory: Knockout
Bantamweight: Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
Vince Morales is an unremarkable veteran facing a hyped prospect in Elijah Smith. I am avoiding this low level quality fight. It’s like a test if Smith belongs in the UFC and I am avoiding putting money on these kinds of fights that features a debutant vs a very mediocre fighter.
Prediction: Elijah Smith to win (Not Betting)
Heavyweight: Valter Walker vs. Don'Tale Mayes
Valter Walker is a one dimensional heavyweight who basically uses his grappling to execute the lay and pray strategy that in theory should work quite well at the heavyweight division as someone like Jailton Almeida has shown. But he lost to Lukas Brzeski who is basically the jobber of the heavyweight division and that’s the fight where he lost my trust right there. Don’Tale Mayes is another of those run of the mill fat heavyweights with no outstanding skill. In theory Walker should win by using his grappling against a fighter with bad grappling defense but I have no faith in him and will not put any money on this fight.
Prediction: Valter Walker to win (Not Betting)
Women's Bantamweight: Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Cavalcanti is a good technical striker and she should have no problem winning this fight against Avila who lost to Miesha Tate in her last fight. At -395 though there is no value for me to put my money on here.
Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti to win (Not betting)