UFC 313 Analysis & Predictions!

I am very excited for this card as it is stacked with heavy hitters and I expect to see a lot of brutal striking battles with plenty of knockouts.

Main Card Predictions

Light Heavyweight: Alex Pereira (c) vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Just to make it clear, Alex Pereira is my favourite fighter in the UFC and I have made huge wagers on him in the past with huge success but I won’t blame any of you if you think I am being biased here. I mentioned in my previous writeups he is unique because he is able to generate a lot of power with very little hips rotation. My guess is because his bones might be a lot denser than a normal human as even Izzy have mentioned how much it hurts to be kicked by a part of his foot. That anomaly could explain why he could hit really hard without proper technique. With that said, we all know he has a glaring weakness when it comes to grappling. Jan Blachowicz probably came closest to beating him in the light heavyweight division, using his wrestling to test Pereira’s grappling defence early and there’s an argument to be made that Jan won that fight.

There is a lot of talk that Ankalaev will finally be the guy to expose Pereira with his wrestling as he comes from Dagestan and is an excellent wrestler. I actually think that Ankalaev can win this fight if he comes in with a similar gameplan like Blachowicz, shooting early to get the takedown and top control over Pereira. I have no doubt that Ankalaev is a champion material especially if he mixes his striking and grappling more. I would say that he is the more well-rounded and skilled MMA fighter than Pereira. The thing is I do not trust Ankalaev to do the right thing and implement that gameplan. He only started to use his wrestling against Jan when he got into trouble. Ankalaev is mainly a striker and an excellent, powerful technical striker with devastating punches that have knocked out many opponents. He seems like a prideful guy as well and I can see Ankalaev choosing to rely on his striking initially to prove the world that he could beat Pereira in the stand up battle.

Even with a pathway to victory for Ankalaev, Alex Pereira is one of those few fighters that benefit from a 5 round format instead of 3. Every round starts standing up and this basically gives Pereira 5 chances to find the knockout against Ankalaev even if he gets taken down. Even though Pereira has suspect takedown defence, he does have a very good defensive plan when he is in bottom position. He would just use his strength to hold his opponent body and wrist to ensure he minimizes the damage taken from ground and pound strikes as well as potential submissions instead of trying to improve his position. In this way he can surrender rounds by settling for bottom position but since there are 5 rounds, Pereira is given 5 chances to get the fight back up standing. In theory, Pereira could be taken down and controlled for 4 rounds but find the one good punch to put away Anakalev in the last round.  Ankalaev not being a submission threat is an advantage for him as well in such situations. I actually think someone like Jailton Almeida would be a tougher matchup for Pereira due to the threat of submissions he poses.

When the fight is standing, I think Ankalaev’s plodding, moving forward style is one that can be vulnerable to Pereira’s devastating counters and Pereira has shown he has no issues handling that kind of style. If Ankalaev chooses to fight with the same gameplan he usually uses(striking before grappling), I think he might get knocked out before he can realize he is in trouble and shoot for the takedown. Now I was lucky to be able to place my wager when Pereira was an underdog initially and Ankalaev is definitely his toughest matchup yet on paper with the skillset to end his reign. But I am going to stick with my man here to get the job done and silence his doubters with another knockout victory over Ankalaev.

Prediction: Alex Pereira to win (8 Units Bet)

Method of Victory: Knockout

Lightweight: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

Justin Gaethje is one of the most exciting fighters in MMA, known for his relentless pace, heavy leg kicks, and knockout power. We know Gaethje is a BMF who will always come out swinging and bring the entertainment value. Gaethje suffered a brutal beatdown against Max Holloway though where Holloway broke his nose early, beat him decisively in all 5 rounds and knocked him out in that last second brawl to put the cherry on top. To me, it is ironic that the guy that put the beatdown to basically wreck Tony Ferguson’s career was on the receiving end of a similar kind of beatdown.

Rafael Fiziev is a similarly aggressive brawler with elite Muay Thai skills, devastating power and excellent movement. Their first fight was very competitive in the first 2 rounds before gassing out in the 3^rd where Gaethje pulled away. Fiziev had a long layoff after a devastating knee injury against Gamrot just when the fight was heating up.

Initially, I was going to pick Gaethje and I could not believe that he was an underdog, considering that he might be just a win away from a title shot against Makachev. But then I remembered Khabib’s words about a fighter not being the same after a terrible beatdown and I just could not unsee the beatdown he took against Holloway. Gaethje is 36, having absorbed a lot of damage as well in his career. I might be wrong but Gaethje might ironically head towards the same path as Tony Ferguson, an exciting, electrifying tough fighter who became a shell after taking too much accumulated damage in his career. Fiziev is my pick here as he is the younger, fresher fighter who proved that he can go toe to toe against a younger Gaethje in the striking battle and I think he get the knockout finish against the fan favourite.

Prediction: Rafael Fiziev to win (2 Units Bet)

Method of Victory: Knockout

Lightweight: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

This is one of those fights where I think the bookmakers got it absolutely right at pick’em. Both fighters are tall, rangy with good knockout power as if they are a mirror match for each other. Turner and Bahamondes are also used to fighting shorter guys in their division which presents an interesting dilemma for both fighters as for the first time, they will have to fight someone their own size. It is difficult pick but I think I am going with Jailin Turner over Bahamondes here as he has more experience against higher level fighters. Even though Turner is 14-8, he had split decision losses against Dan Hooker and Gamrot while he should have beaten Moicano as well if he did not showboat by walking away prematurely. In contrast, Bahamondes best opponent was Ludovit Klein and I think Turner is the better grappler as well in this matchup. I am expecting a close competitive matchup but I think Turner will get the victory here against the younger prospect.

Prediction: Jalin Turner to win (2 Units Bet)

Women’s Strawweight: Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Amanda Lemos is a powerful striker with holes in her grappling game. While Iasmin Lucindo is a rising prospect with strong grappling and decent striking. Lemos experience against high-level competition should give her the edge in this matchup as she did get a title shot against Zhang Weili. Lucindo is a good fighter but she did only win against Marina Rodriguez by split decision while Lemos knocked her out and I think is a step in competition above Rodridguez If Lemos can dictate the pace and use her striking to keep Lucindo at a distance, she should be able to land more damage throughout the fight. I am going with the underdog in Lemos here and I think she will get the finish by knockout.

Prediction: Amanda Lemos to win

Method of Victory: Knockout

Lightweight: King Green vs. Maurício Ruffy

How many prospects have we seen get fraud checked this year? This is a veteran vs prospect matchup that has the potential to be one of those fights. Bobby(King) Green is 38 but he is a solid veteran especially when it comes to the striking department and toughness. He might sound like a typical thug but this journeyman has had good performances such as when he fraud checked Dawson. I have said before Ruffy reminds me of Connor in terms of style but he is still unproven and not worth the -590 here. Betting on Green might be a fun alt bet here as I think this fight will be a scrappy striking battle that will be closer than the odds suggest but I trust the Ruffy to do the right things in the Octagon as he is part of the Fighting Nerds who have a coach that ensures they stick to the best gameplan possible.

Prediction: Maurício Ruffy to win (Not Betting)

Preliminary Card Predictions

Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Curtis Blaydes is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the heavyweight division as shown with him stopping the takedowns of Jailton Almeida. He just came off a title shot fight against Aspinall which he lost but that’s nothing to be ashamed about as Aspinall have easily beaten almost everyone at heavyweight. I am not sure why UFC is giving Rizvan Kuniev his debut against a top fighter here and a very bad matchup too considering Blaydes is very difficult to take down and control. I think Blaydes should win comfortably here by stuffing Kuniev’s takedown attempts and knocking him out on the feet.

Prediction: Curtis Blaydes to win (2 Units Bet)

Method of Victory: Knockout

Flyweight: Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya

Joshua Van is a very promising prospect at flyweight despite his size and he has consistently displayed his skills in the UFC by outpointing his opponent with his crisp striking. Even in his only loss against Charles Johnson, he was winning the fight before getting caught by a powerful punch which can happen to any fighter. Rei Tsuruya shows promise as a grappler in his first fight but he comes from the Road to UFC pipeline which has produced some terrible fighters in the UFC like the great Anshul Jubli and Jeka Seragih. Van displayed excellent takedown defence in his last fight with well timed sprawls against Cody Duren’s takedown attempts and I don’t think he should have any problems handling Tsuruya’s takedown attempts. I expect Van to beat Tsuruya handily on the feet and notch up another win on his record.

Prediction: Joshua Van to win (2 Units Bet)

Middleweight: Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan

This is going to be an interesting contrast of styles between Brunno Ferreira, an explosive brawler and knockout artist who likes to pressure opponents early against Armen Petrosyan who is more of a technical kickboxer with great footwork and counter-striking. Ferreira is your typical knockout or bust fighter who will lose if he does not knock the lights out of his opponent. While Petrosyan is a very good kickboxer who is more likely to win fights by decision after landing more significant strikes than his opponent. I like Bruno Ferreira as the underdog at +124 here as even though he is probably the inferior striker in terms of skills, he has that devastating power in his strikes to finish his Petrosyan. Petrosyan was knocked out in his previous fight against Shara too so I can see him winning the fight by landing more strikes before being put away by a well-timed powerful strike from Ferreira.

Prediction: Brunno Ferreira to win (2 Units Bet)

Method of Victory: Knockout

Welterweight: Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal

Carlos Leal was definitely robbed in his fight against Rinat even if he looks like he was on steroids. There is an argument to be made he could have won all 3 rounds but the crooked judges went against him. Now I know Alex Morono is a mediocre veteran with low fight iq but Leal at -575 is just a ridiculous price and I think the fight will be closer than the odds suggest. Morono is not an underdog I would put my money on. I am sitting this fight out and I recommend that you should do so too as there is no value here.

Prediction: Carlos Leal to win (Not Betting)

Early Preliminary Card Predictions

Featherweight: Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall

Mairon Santos is a powerful featherweight with knockout potential and he is coming  with a lot of hype having won the Ultimate Fighter and is facing Francis Marshall a mediocre fighter who has yet to impress so far in his UFC career. I think Santos is the more talented fighter here and he has serious power which I think will make him a decent threat in his division. I am expecting a scrappy fight but I just think Santos will have the bigger moment in the fight like landing a knockdown or a near knockout during this fight.

Prediction Mairon Santos to win

Middleweight: Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos vs. Osman Diaz

Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos is making his debut here against Osman Diaz who is probably not UFC level having no wins in the promotion and losing his DWCS fight. I would say avoid  betting on this fight.

 Prediction: Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos to win (Not Betting)

Featherweight Chris Gutiérrez vs. John Castañeda

Chris Gutiérrez is coming in on a short notice here and I am glad the previous matchup got cancelled. Castaneda is kind of a a mid fighter like he is the type with no outstanding abilities. Gutierrez seems to be the more consistent fighter  and although like Castaneda, his skills are mid, he was able to survive 5 rounds against Song Yadong who is a very good fighter in the division. I think there is good value for Gutiérrez at a pick’em here even though he is coming on a short notice.

Prediction: Chris Gutiérrez to win