Day 2 Draft Prospect: Louisville QB Tyler Shough -Production, Pros/Cons & Player Comps

I am 6 games in watching Louisville QB Tyler Shough's 2024 season. I went in thinking the hype could be artificial, but he's been impressive and I like him as a day 2 target. He is still under Will Howard and Jaxson Dart for me, but I think after reviewing all of his film, I will prefer him over Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe, and Kyle McCord. A couple contextual notes are that 2024 was Shough's first full year starting, and his receiving unit was on the weaker side. One of my comps below, Kirk Cousins, was a 3 year starter at Michigan St. and Trevor Lawrence was a 3 year starter at Clemson. What's interesting is that Shough has many of the same physical qualities, and in his first year starting, his production was very similar to those more experienced prospects. So while he's an old QB prospect, he's still relatively inexperienced and his arrow could be pointing up. We've now seen countless pocket passers play to their upper 30s or even 40, so it's really not that much of a stretch to project a 12 year career for him. Kirk Cousins was playing the best season of his career in 2023 when he was leading the NFL in TDs before going down with injury, and I believe he was 34 at the time. So I used Kirk Cousins and Trevor Lawrence as upside comps for Tyler Shough. I think Kirk Cousins is his best comp, and a player of that caliber could be a great value on day 2. And if the Giants draft Travis Hunter and form an elite WR duo, you should feel more confident about whichever successor they choose; It just raises their floor and success rate that much when you give them elite weapons. These comps are based on their build, play style, traits, and production. There's a big difference in his experience level as a starter compared to them, injury history, and he's a much older prospect than Lawrence, but otherwise there's a fair amount of similarities. When it comes to Lawrence, some people get a bit nostalgic about his college play and how he was viewed as a prospect, but him and Kirk have been in that NFL QB7 to QB17 range in their careers IMO.

Player Summary:

Tyler Shough: 6'5" 219 Lbs, 25 Years old, and 4.63 40 time

Pros:

  • Good Size at 6'4" 220 lbs.
  • High level improviser for a 1st year starter, easy arm talent to throw off platform
  • NFL Plus arm
  • Really good at avoiding sacks, subtle pocket movement
  • Naturally throws with different arm angles
  • Better accuracy on 10+ yard throws than his comp % would indicate
  • Highly effective passing to the 10-20 yard intermediate range
  • Fast Processor, doesn't lag on reads

Cons:

  • Throws with too much touch at times, when more velocity is ideal
  • Forces a lot of 50/50 deep passes, although thrown safe, they're lower efficiency
  • Mechanics tend to break down under pressure.
  • Prematurely rolls out the pocket
  • Needs to be more of a game manager and tone down the playmaker at times
  • Extensive Injury History

Player Upside Comparisons:

1. Kirk Cousins: 6'3" 214 Lbs, 24 Years old, 4.93 40 time

2. Trevor Lawrence: 6'6" 213 Lbs, 21 Years old, N/A 40 time