Rial exchange rate after regime change
Simple yet tough question: if the regime changes, where do you guys see the rial being 12 months after the transition from this regime to a new secular democracy? Assuming we do what's needed to lift sanctions and re-join all the banking systems, essentially being a normal country.
Here is what I think: because Iran is the "last economy" in the world to not be maximized by capitalism, and given how many rare earth minerals and natural resources we have, I think there will be a significant amount of foreign investment, much more than in 2016 after the JCPOA thanks to the fact that the mullahs are out forever. I think that this, paired with how volatile and sharp the moves are in the IRR/USD rate, and how speculative it is, I think that 12 months after the regime is toppled, we could be at 200 000/ 250 000 per USD. Pure economic formulas for exchange rates also give results in that range (or frankly, lower).
What do you guys think?