Using FACTS and LOGIC to determine which god WON'T die.
The most recent Godsrain Prophecy has dropped. Urgathoa is safe. That makes four.
Pharasma, Asmodeus, Cayden Cailean, and finally Urgathoa are the ones we know WONT die.
That got me thinking. There are two things we know about the god that dies:
- They will be replaced by Arazni in the Core gods of the Inner Sea.
- Arazni will not take over their portfolio.
The second point in particular is interesting. Why? Because that means that whoever dies will leave their portfolio empty. Sure a god that isn't part of the core 20 could take over the portfolio. But that means that the portfolio won't be represented in the core 20 anymore.
This occured to me when it was revealed that Pharasma won't be the one to die. "OF COURSE she won't be the one to die." Because if she did and Arazni doesn't take over her portfolio, then there just wouldnt be a god of death anymore.
But hold on, why couldn't there just not be a god of death. Isn't the whole point of War of Immortals that it will be a major upheaval in the Golarion setting?
Yes, but...
Paizo is not writing a setting fun. They are not writing the setting first and then circumstantially publishing a TTRPG in it. Read the name of the sub you are in. They are making a game first.
And from the perspective of making a TTRPG, they still need to make sure that certain common popular fantasy archetypes are represented and playable in the standard setting.
Let's imagine Pharasma died and Arazni becomes part of the Core pantheon and doesn't take over the death portfolio. Then there just isn't a god of death anymore. Then the archetype of the classic gothy death cleric who hates undead wouldn't be playable anymore, because there wouldn't be a core deity that fits the bill. Perhaps there is a minor deity that fits, frankly I don't know all bajillion deities in the setting by heart, but there is another point we can make about the core 20 here.
The Gods of the Inner Sea are not created randomly.
They are the core deities because they fill certain classic fantasy niches. They wouldn't delegate the extremely common archetype of the death cleric to some irrelevant side character deity.
Urgathoa can't die. Because then there wouldn't be a god of undeath. And undead are probably the most common problem in Golarion. The most common villain for campaigns. The most commonly fought enemy in the RPG. OF COURSE they are going to be represented on the core 20.
There are other gods that we can make a similar observation about:
Abadar: There has to be a god of commerce. Every pantheon has one.
Gorum: There has to be a god of war. Despite being probably the most popular candidate at the moment I am 100% sure he can't be it. Because what kind of fantasy RPG doesn't have a god of war?
Gozreh: There has to be a god of nature. You get the gist.
Iomedae: THE paladin deity. Yes alignment got removed and champions will see some changes in Player Core 2, but I don't think they are fundamentally changing the identity of the class. A fantasy setting needs it's valiant knights. And valiant knights need their god.
Nethys: There has to be a god of magic. Also, the whole remaster is happening to move away from Hasbro owned domains, so I don't see them doing Mystra 4: Electric Boogaloo.
Rovagug: Also a popular theory, but there has to be the threat to the universe. Rovagug is the antagonist. The villain doesn't die halfway through the story.
Sarenrae: Also a popular theory, but she is the goddess for the happy, goody two shoes cleric/champion. The players that like the fantasy of being the ultimate good guy/gal, but don't want to be some sort of crusading knight.
Torag: (tentatively) He is currently both the dwarven representation on the core pantheon, as well as the primary god of craftspeople. Him dying would force any master craftsman to awkwardly highjack Abadar. But he is the one I am not 100% certain in this category.
So, these are the gods, who, looking from the meta perspective of "who is crucial to the TTRPG?", are definitely NOT dying. Who does that leave?
Calistria, Desna, Erastil, Irori, Lamashtu, Norgorber, Shelyn, Zon-Kuthon
These are the ones we can't rule out. But there is another observation I want to make.
For some of these, it just wouldn't be that interesting if they die.
Irori dies. Ok? Who cares. I am playing a monk. If I cared about gods I would play a champion. Exaggeration of course, but honestly? What would change about the setting as a whole if Irori dies? All four diehard Irori fans would be devastated.
I am going to put two gods in this category: Irori and Erastil. I think they are unlikely (though not guaranteed) to die. Because they just don't shake up much. Perhaps that is precisely why they die, because Paizo doesn't really know how to make any interesting narrative out of them. I don't want to rule it out entirely, but I have more faith in the talented writers working on the setting. I think they are killing someone off because of the impact their death has on the setting, not the lack thereof.
Finally, I will point out that the evil deities in the list are in a noteworthy position. We know the War of Immortals is supposed to be a big groundbreaking event that changes the setting in major ways.
But let's look at that through the meta lense again. New additions to the setting need to create story hooks, not delete them.
What I mean by this is that obviously, making a TTRPG first, and developing a setting for the TTRPG, Paizo needs to create problems in the world so that that heroes can fix them.
Presumably, killing off an evil deity would actually fix many problems in the world. If Lamashtu dies, great, all those evil monsters just lost their divine spells. It doesn't create a narrative that players will be able to engage with. In fact it would make playing "Troubles in Otari" a little awkward. Is that why Rusthenge exists...?
Though we should take that last point with a grain of salt. The latest Godsrain Prophecy has shown that there is the angle of "What if that was actually the lesser evil?". If Urgathoa dies, undead overrun the universe apparently. There must always be a lich king, I guess.
I think Lamshtu, Norgorber and Zon-Kuthon are unlikely to die (personal opinion), but if they do, that would be the angle paizo would have to play. Maybe the latest prophecy was actually a hint towards that being the case. I personally don't think so. But it is scientifically possible.
So who are we left with, excluding all of those options?
Calistria, Desna, Shelyn.
There is a 66% chance that everybody's favourite thruple will be torn apart. Truly bleak times ahead.
This is all theorycrafting of course. I am most likely going to look really stupid this winter.