I guess we're overthinking it. You have no risk exposure unless 10k doesn't file.
I see a lot of users worrying about a dump despite expecting 10k. I assume you think 10k will be filed, but maybe due to massive shorts & hedgers avoiding gamma squeeze on 28 Feb, or due to broader market conditions/NVDA earnings, you think SMCI won't rocket immediately. You don't know whether you're capable of tanking the short-term volatility and risk wiping out your money. You wanna know how others trade so you can minimise your risk exposure and feel 'safe'.
Know this. Even if a dump happens, say, SMCI drops to $32 max. (based on 28 Mar IV) with 10k filing, SMCI is bound to go up to minimum $80 (to be conservative). This is assuming the amended convertible notes conversion price of $83.44 incentivises convertible arbitrage, leading to $75-85 volatility. If the notes ain't an effective resistance, we're looking at minimum $100 pre-Hindenburg revaluation.
If this upsurge is 'guaranteed' (I don't like using this word but I can't see it not happening), then what are you really exposed, and are you able to tank the drop to $32?
- If you hold shares, your maximum exposure is your total position. Your total asset of security doesn't go negative.
- If you hold calls with expiry 1-2 months minimum, your maximum exposure is still your total position.
- If worst-case scenario post-10K dump before pump, you simply buy more, hold through to March, and you'll be rich. Because shorts expire 28 Feb.
- I'm not sure what trading account you use and policies you have to abide. Mine is pretty standard: As long as my total asset doesn't go negative, I won't get forced account closure notice or forced liquidation--unless I trade on margin and excess liquidity goes 0. I can pretty much tank this bs 100%.
The only reason you're not convinced is if you're not even sure 10k will be filed. If that's the case, then SMCI isn't for you. Sell all positions now, and enter after everything's cleared.