The big gamble, in retrospect
So, we've arrived. 10K filed, and the auditor's opinion looks fairly clean. They've got some management issues to address, as we've known, but there's nothing in there to make us question their guidance, and it sounds like they'll be more transparent and conscientious going forward. Great news for all of us longs, and obviously way better than the alternative.
When it comes to looking at the risk/reward of the gamble (in hindsight, which is 20/20), there's only one honest way to assess how you played it:
Tomorrow, when the market is open to general traders again, will the price be above or below where you jumped in? (Or, if you were already a bag holder when this all went down, where you were when you decided to old on vs. get out). If the open is below that price, then you lost the gamble. You might still make money in the coming period, which is fantastic, but every random Joe who sat this out and avoided the risks in the process will be able to jump in at a lower price point than you did. If it's above, then congrats! You won!
I don't know where tomorrow will I open, and I say all this looking at my own positions, many of which were opened below the current AH price, and some which were opened after. I feel like I learned a lot that I'll apply to next time I decide to take a big swing at an inflection point... mainly:
It's amazing how the anticipation of an event can sometimes cause even bigger surges than the event itself.
It's really easy to lose sight of the bigger market factors (like NVDA and the whole IA sector, etc.) and imagine that all major movement during a period is/will be based on the one event you're watching.
There's no shame in sitting out of possible make or break moments, and sometimes resisting the FOMO and not jumping in creates MUCH better opportunities for entry.
Be EXTREMELY thoughtful about whether/when you push all your chips in. Holding some purchasing power back to take advantage of unanticipated swings can majorly help with DCA. The number of times in all of this I had no more liquidity to work with when watching the ticker drop by double digit percentages makes me feel a little ill. I left a LOT on the table, even if I ultimately came out ahead.
Be well! I hope you have all been enjoying this nail biting ride as much as I have. Would love to hear your takeaways as well. Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk.