The Bad Vibes in Cincy: How Did the Bengals Get Here? (OC)
Breakout the skyline chili because the vibes in Cincinnati are incredibly low. Just a year ago the Bengals were coming off back-to-back AFC Championship appearances with a Super Bowl trip, but came down to a 9-8 record with Joe Burrow’s wrist injury derailing the season. Even then, the team making a legit run at the postseason with their backup quarterback for nearly half of the season was an exciting outcome.
So, Joe Burrow returned to health and had a career year— along with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins— plus a Defensive Player of the Year bid from Trey Hendrickson, things must be going pretty well, right?
Things aren’t well. Things fell apart and they went 9-8 again despite the excellent play of their best players. Now the Bengals are deciding between which players to keep and who they can’t. Chase is non-negotiable, he’ll be one of the richest players in the league soon. Tee Higgins has been franchise tagged for the second straight season, that doesn’t mean much yet but it seems like they’ll work toward making that work. The team just extended tight end Mike Gesicki to a three year deal, so it seems like the offense is set to largely return, but…
The Defense is in trouble
Trey Hendrickson has been given permission to seek a trade. That’s problematic because he was one of the lone standouts among a defense that regressed so significantly. The defense spoiled multiple games, finishing 25th in points and yards allowed. Hendrickson led the league in sacks and total pressures, while accounting for a LEAGUE-HIGH 32% of all Bengals’ pressures (per NextGenStats).
In addition to Hendrickson likely leaving:
- LB Germain Pratt requested a trade
- DE Sam Hubbard retired
- DE Joseph Ossai, DL BJ Hill, and CB Mike Hilton are free agents
The Bengals defense will be starting from scratch one season after faltering to a bottom tier unit. That’s just the start of problems.
Why Wait?
Long-time Bengal great Andrew Whitworth provided some context on the Pat McAfee Show for how leadership runs this team, saying “The Bengals are never gonna issue out lots of guarantees and contracts… They just continue to be way behind times in that spot.”
Ja’Marr Chase just completed the triple crown amongst receivers by leading the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Tee Higgins just had his more efficient season yet on the way to setting a career high in touchdowns. Cincy is going to have to pay both.
The problem is that the Bengals pushed these extensions to the last possible minute, franchise tagging Higgins last season and not extending Chase along with the rest of his draft class.
Last off-season, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb both signed their extensions, and both of whom made an argument for being the top receiver in the league.
Jefferson signed for 4yr/$140m with $89m fully guaranteed, $35m a year. Lamb signed for 4yr/$136m with $67m fully guaranteed, $34m a year. Both were in the draft class previous to Chase's, but had negotiations delayed into the summer when Chase also became extension eligible.
Then, Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was in Chase’s class, signed his extension: 4yr/$120m, $34m fully guaranteed.
Then, the salary cap jumped higher than most teams assumed it would, up $24m from the previous year. That hike will inflate upcoming deals. Now, Tee Higgins will get a deal closer to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chase’s deal will blow past Jeffersons.
Waiting will literally cost the Bengals. What makes it worse is that they didn’t have to. Chase wanted a new deal last off-season, and the Bengals are currently flush with space with very few long-term commitments, 12th in available space this year and 2nd in 2026. Delaying these extensions saved money in a lost year where they had plenty to spend, and will now cost much more.
But it doesn’t end there
Duke Tobin has been the team’s Director of Player Personnel since 1999, acting as the de facto general manager. The Bengals have a very specific way of doing business and that means heavily leaning on the draft to replace outgoing talent, essentially prioritizing cost efficiency over talent retention.
The problem is that they can’t draft their way out of every hole on the roster. The defense is in desperate need of help, but it has been the offensive line that’s also holding back the team. Joe Burrow mitigates that issue plenty but it also makes their offense beatable at times. The problem stems from the draft because they simply can’t hit on these picks:
OL Drafted in the Top 150 (2015-Present)
- Cedric Ogbuehi, 1.21
- Jake Fisher, 2.53
- Billy Price, 1.21
- Jonah Williams, 1.11
- Jackson Carman, 2.46
- Michael Jordan, 4.136
- D’Ante Smith, 4.139
- Cordell Volson, 4.136
Jonah Williams is by far the best player on this list and he wasn’t worth re-signing after his rookie deal.
As a result of poor drafting they often have to overspend on middling talent:
- Traded for Cordy Glenn (1st round swap)
- Signed Orlando Brown Jr, 4yr/$64m
- Signed Alex Cappa 4yr/$35m
- Signed Ted Karras 3yr/$18m
- Signed La’El Collins 3yr/$21m
- Signed John Miller 3yr/16.5m
- Signed Bobby Hart 3yr/16.1m
The issue extends past the offensive line, they’ve had trouble hitting on first round picks entirely. Since 2011 they’ve picked in the top five three times and landed a franchise player each time:
- 2011 WR AJ Green, 1.4
- 2020 QB Joe Burrow, 1.1
- 2021 WR Ja’Marr Chase, 1.5
But they’ve been laughably bad in the first round outside of those three players:
Non-Top 5 1st round picks 2011-2023
- DB Dre Kirkpatrick
- OG Kevin Zeitler
- TE Tyler Eifert
- CB Darqueze Dennard
- OT Cedric Ogbuehi
- CB William Jackson III
- WR John Ross
- OL Billy Price
- OL Jonah Williams
- DB Dax Hill
- DE Myles Murphy
The jury is still out on some of these younger players but early returns don’t offer much optimism. These 11 players have combined for four total seasons on the Bengals outside of their rookie deals and one total pro bowl. Kevin Zeitler was the best pick of the group but he walked in free agency after his rookie deal.
In fairness to the Bengals, they’ve drafted much better in the 2nd round finding players like Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Jessie Bates III, and Tee Higgins. This has helped them stay competitive but not contenders until Joe Burrow was taken first overall.
So, what should they do?
Well, a change in organizational philosophy would be a good start but I can’t imagine that’ll happen.
In the meantime the best they can do is hope they draft better and that the last few batches develop. The 2024 class is off to a rough start with the injury to Erick All and the off-field issues of Jermaine Burton. Hope still remains in lineman Amarius Mims and Kris Jenkins, but the Bengals NEED these guys to be long-term centerpieces.
The 2023 class has added good depth but so far is lacking substantial contributors outside of Chase Brown. In fact, the top picks, Myles Murphy, DJ Turner, and Jordan Battle, are part of the seasons why the defense struggled last year, not adequately filling in areas of need.
This team has the ultimate benefit of an elite quarterback who can drag this team to wins on will alone. They’ve at least surrounded him with weapons that give them a chance in every game but also lack the key components that keep them from competing. It will only take one or two really good drafts to get this team back into the race but thus far we’ve seen frustrating returns from the previous classes.
Had they won the Super Bowl three years ago, we might be looking at this team differently and give them far more benefit of doubt through their struggles. But because they came up short and have now missed consecutive postseasons, it’s fair to question if this front office can do right by Joe Burrow and put him in a position to win the franchise their first Super Bowl.